Rare Earths Are Barely Rare, Yet the Market Behaves as If They Are
The world mines less rare earth tonnage than steel makes in two hours, yet export restrictions repeatedly move this market more than volume explains.
Global rare earth mine production, roughly 390,000 tonnes in 2024, is a tiny market by tonnage, less than steel produces in about two hours, yet it carries outsized strategic weight and price volatility relative to that small physical volume.
The concentration number behind the volatility
Running the index on rare earths’ real 2024 mine shares (China roughly 69%, the United States around 11%, Myanmar 8%, Australia, Thailand, and Nigeria each around 3%, with India, Russia, and Madagascar contributing small remaining shares) gives an HHI of roughly 4,962, comfortably “highly concentrated,” and this is only the mining-stage figure, the refining and magnet-stage numbers covered on the supply chain page are higher still.
Why export policy, not mine output, moves the price
Because separation and magnet-making capacity concentrate even further than mining, covered on this material’s supply chain page, China’s export licensing decisions for specific rare earth materials and magnet-related technology have repeatedly moved prices and triggered real, documented supply anxiety among manufacturers, independent of any actual change in the physical volume of ore in the ground.
Sources: production figures reference this project’s own published production data (USGS); HHI is computed directly from that data; export policy effects are widely reported (Reuters, Bloomberg); the 2,500 HHI threshold is the US Department of Justice/FTC Horizontal Merger Guidelines convention.